Transformation of the left : The myth of voter losses to the radical right

PERSPECTIVE DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS Across Western Europe, social democratic parties have on average experienced a decline of their vote share in parliamen tary elections of more than 10 percentage points over the past 15 years. A prominent thesis in the de bates about the reasons for these losses is that social demo cratic parties have lost working class voters to rightwing populist and radical right parties. TRANSFORMATION OF THE LEFT In this policy brief, we provide evidence which shows that this interpretation is at odds with the best empirical data we have on vote switching. The policy brief focuses on voter outflows away from social democratic parties. The Myth of Voter Losses to the Radical Right Silja Häusermann, Herbert Kitschelt, Tarik Abou-Chadi, Macarena Ares, Daniel Bischof, Thomas Kurer, Mathilde van Ditmars and Markus Wagner January 2021 Both past and potential future losses are predominantly to green and leftlibertarian parties, followed by mainstream right parties. DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS TRANSFORMATION OF THE LEFT The Myth of Voter Losses to the Radical Right INTRODUCTION Social Democratic parties are currently facing a fundamental electoral crisis. Across Western Europe, they have on average experienced a decline of their vote share in parliamentary elections of more than 10 percentage points over the past 15 years. In some countries, such as France and the Netherlands, their score even sank below 10 percent. This development has...