Shifting sands: Hedging strategies in Sahel- Maghreb relations

BRIEF / 12 May 2025 SHIFTING SANDS Hedging strategies in Sahel- Maghreb relations by Rossella Marangio Senior Analyst, EUISS The boundaries dividing the Maghreb and the Sahel have never looked so porous. Geography and history have long tethered North Africa to its southern hinterland. But a recent spate of coups and shifting diplomatic alignments has drawn the two regions into an even more intricate web of entanglements – albeit under markedly different terms. Globally, the US is cutting development aid but maintains strategic security ties in the region, particularly with Morocco. Russia remains engaged in the region, although its presence is increasingly contested locally. In the central Sahel, regime changes in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have upended long-standing foreign policy alignments. The trio’s rejection of more traditional partners such as France and the US in favour of alternatives – most notably Russia – has shifted the balance of power and redrawn the region’s diplomatic map. Yet this is not a clean break. What is emerging instead is a form of geopolitical hedging, in which states hedge their bets – strengthening some alliances while cautiously exploring others to minimise risk (1). This pragmatic posture reflects a broader trend. As global and regional configurations evolve, governments are less inclined to commit fully to any single partnership. Instead, they weigh costs and benefits, test loyalties, and diversify partners to mitigate risks ©...