Adapting the EU budget to make it fit for the purpose of future enlargements

AT A GLANCE Requested by the BUDG Committee Study in Focus Adapting the EU budget to make it fit for the purpose of future enlargements The study examines the implications of future enlargements for the next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF). It assesses the budgetary costs under three scenarios for 2028- 2034: (1) a ‘small bang’ – all six Western Balkan candidate and potential candidate countries joining by 2030, (2) a ‘big bang’ – the six Western Balkans plus Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova joining by 2030, and (3) ‘gradual integration’ – no accessions before 2034 but with the prospect of accessing the Union remaining alive. Drawing on this analysis and lessons from past enlargements, the study offers policy recommendations on how to adapt the next MFF for the next round of enlargements. Background Check out the original full study by scanning this QR code! After a lull of several years, enlargement is back on the EU’s agenda with five candidates in the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia) and three new candidates from the former Soviet Union (Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine). Kosovo is also keen to become a candidate, raising the number of potential enlargement countries to ten, although Türkiye’s candidacy is not expected to advance in the coming year. Estimating net EU budget costs of enlargements is complex. There is a numerical formula to calculate the Cohesion Policy (CP) funding a country should...